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Guess the first announcement date, 2020
  • Godflesh
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:09 am

    cowboy71 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:46 pm
    cowboy71 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:23 am
    Amalu wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:38 am
    I'm sure someone here will have a statistic about how many bands have been announced in the first 48 hours after the first band for each year, right? ;)
    It varies wildly year on year, heavily dependent on how long between first band/s and sailing.

    2011 - 6 bands first up (over a year out from sailing), a month until next band
    2012 - 7 bands first up (almost 300 days before sailing), another 3 forty days later
    2013 - 10 bands first up (only 215 days from sailing), then a steady release of bands every few days for the next month
    2014 - 4 bands first up (300 days from sailing), 8 bands announced a few days apart for the next month
    2015 - 8 bands (over 300 days from sailing), 8 more bands over the next week then a long break
    2016 - 10 bands released over 2 days 220ish days from sailing, then another 12 over the next 10 days
    2017 - First band 210 days to go, steady stream of 28 individual band announcements over the next 18 days
    2018 - First band with again around 210 days to go, 21 bands over 8 days
    2019 - First band with 150ish days to go, 28 bands over 20 days.
    My next, baseless and futile prediction !! :P Is that if/when announcements finally start, we will get 50% of the lineup within 30 days.
    As I remember, last year we got 10 bands on Friday, 2 on Saturday, 1 on Sunday, then a regular trickle starting Monday, until we in fact got almost half the lineup, then silence for about 3 months.

    Andy must think that we should wean off announcements like with steroids, to avoid dependency effects.
    I got a bottle of 15 pills for my cat: 1/2 each day for 7 days, then 1/4 each day for 7 days, then 1/4 every other day, until the end of the bottle.
    Can you guess how long those 15 pills last? Do the math.

    92 days, with just 15 pills.

    If you start with 60 instead of 15, then this is a formula to distribute announcements over 92 days:
    2 a day for 7 days, then 1 a day for 7 days, then 1 every other day for 78 days.
    This gives 21 announcements in the first two weeks, which is solid, while still dragging forever, but maintaining interest.
  • Downvod
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Downvod » Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:18 am

    Godflesh wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:09 am
    cowboy71 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:46 pm
    cowboy71 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 4:23 am
    It varies wildly year on year, heavily dependent on how long between first band/s and sailing.

    2011 - 6 bands first up (over a year out from sailing), a month until next band
    2012 - 7 bands first up (almost 300 days before sailing), another 3 forty days later
    2013 - 10 bands first up (only 215 days from sailing), then a steady release of bands every few days for the next month
    2014 - 4 bands first up (300 days from sailing), 8 bands announced a few days apart for the next month
    2015 - 8 bands (over 300 days from sailing), 8 more bands over the next week then a long break
    2016 - 10 bands released over 2 days 220ish days from sailing, then another 12 over the next 10 days
    2017 - First band 210 days to go, steady stream of 28 individual band announcements over the next 18 days
    2018 - First band with again around 210 days to go, 21 bands over 8 days
    2019 - First band with 150ish days to go, 28 bands over 20 days.
    My next, baseless and futile prediction !! :P Is that if/when announcements finally start, we will get 50% of the lineup within 30 days.
    As I remember, last year we got 10 bands on Friday, 2 on Saturday, 1 on Sunday, then a regular trickle starting Monday, until we in fact got almost half the lineup, then silence for about 3 months.
    28 bands in September, 10 in October, then 2 months of silence.
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    cegr80
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:56 am

    Death is having the best time of its life, LOL

    Gonna be a few days before our next victim...

    RIP

    :death:
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    slayergeek
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by slayergeek » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:56 am

    I figured out the delay.

    Andy has locked Amon Amarth in his basement and wont let them out until they agree to do the boat and be the first announcement. The band though is pushing back and knows Andy can only wait so long before he needs to announce something and are gambling that if he breaks and has to start making other announcement he will give up the whole idea and let them go.

    How long will this epic situation last, who knows.

    That’s what I heard at least :)
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    acidbasement
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by acidbasement » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:26 am

    I'm gonna throw in a late prediction that the first announcement will be Demons & Wizards on Sept. 9, which is the Monday after their tour wraps up at ProgPower.
    I'm only here to do two things: play the bagpipes and gargle sulphuric acid. Looks like we're almost out of acid.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Phoenix » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:55 am

    Aw yeah, words and shit!

    RIP

    :death:
    March 2nd jaimie38 - all 60 bands
    March 28th Castroh
    March 31st cowboy71
    April 12th jodionline
    April 15th Slayergeek
    April 28th Jotunheimr
    April 30th downvod
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    :death:

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    August 31st Amalu
    September 1st AstridDragon
    September 8th Yippee38
    September 9th acidbasement (Demons & Wizards)
    September 10th Tiki108
    September 23rd ShoreSlayer
    December 25th drrock

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    cegr80
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:00 pm

    Big gap here ... kinda boring not seeing any more deaths
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    Cardest
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Cardest » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:23 am

    A lot of people on the fbook 70 page are claiming that Aug 31st will
    be the first announcement. If so, what a drag.
    Accept were announced that day last year.
    Cruise is much earlier this time around, so naturally we all assume
    the bands/codes etc will come earlier.
    How lame.
    People are also saying we can book flights blindly and the line up will be great anyway!
    I'm way more choosey than that.
    The less repeats the better imo.
    Anyway, Aug 31st seems like a believable bet.
    I hate to say it so.
    Why the fukk do we have to wait all this time is beyond me.
    It shouldn't be depressing, it should be festive and exciting.
    100% - 1, still going!
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    cowboy71
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cowboy71 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:16 pm

    Not tooooo worried about the flight thing. I probably won't book flights until Nov/Dec as that is when they will be at their cheapest.

    I more want the money gone from my account and into Andy's as its so tempting to use it for other things!

    But yeah - August 31st? Leaving 25 days for some bands-then booking for golds-then booking for silvers-then public?

    Insanity.
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  • Phoenix
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Phoenix » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:37 pm

    cowboy71 wrote: Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:16 pm Not tooooo worried about the flight thing. I probably won't book flights until Nov/Dec as that is when they will be at their cheapest.

    I more want the money gone from my account and into Andy's as its so tempting to use it for other things!

    But yeah - August 31st? Leaving 25 days for some bands-then booking for golds-then booking for silvers-then public?

    Insanity.
    I literally don't think it CAN be any later than that, right? Absolute latest is September 29th I guess, if we assume we get at least A band before any sort of booking opens. I dunno, at this point it no longer makes any sense.

    It's my birthday Andy, is that why you aren't announcing anything yet? :P

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    cegr80
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:46 am

    Come on, Andy! It's my birthday! Announce a nice band for me
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    mbob
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by mbob » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:27 am

    No!
    cegr80 wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:46 am Come on, Andy! It's my birthday! Announce a nice band for me
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    cegr80
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:36 am

    mbob wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:27 am No!
    cegr80 wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:46 am Come on, Andy! It's my birthday! Announce a nice band for me
    :bitch:
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  • Godflesh
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:20 am

    cegr80 wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:45 am
    twoandfortysix wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:08 am ANNOUNCEMENTS! ...please?
    Funny that your announcement day guess is gonna die the same day that Tool releases its catalog to all streaming platforms
    Since the new TOOL album after 13 years comes on August 30th, it’s likely now that we’ll get it before the first announcement, which is ironic, because it’s an old trope for “something that comes very late”:
    Image

    I like TOOL (especially the first 3 albums/EP, like most bands) but it’s not metal. Someone I respect said: “it’s a *rock* band that borrows stylistic elements from metal”.
    I heard the new song from the new album and I think it sucks, sounds like a remix of previous songs, zero innovation, which is not like them, and not something that would take 13 years to make.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Cardest » Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:21 am

    Yeah, I too am going bat shit crazy with all this waiting.
    Depressing.


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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Danny24601 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:46 pm

    The more time that goes by, the more I think the first announcement is going to be Demons & Wizards. It would explain this incredible delay, and this delay does seem to need some explaining. So less than 2 weeks to go!
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by metalforever » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:46 pm

    going with September 1 for the initial announcement , right in the middle of labor day weekend !!!!!!!!!!! :death:
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:16 am

    All right, kids ... the grim reaper is returning once more, perhaps for Amalu? :twisted:
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by ollyhills » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:20 am

    My vote goes for tomorrow, the 30th
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Cardest » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:16 pm

    ollyhills wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:20 am My vote goes for tomorrow, the 30th
    To not have any bands announced and cabin bookings not even opened at this point is just farcical!!


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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cowboy71 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:09 am

    Cardest wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:16 pm
    ollyhills wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:20 am My vote goes for tomorrow, the 30th
    To not have any bands announced and cabin bookings not even opened at this point is just farcical!!
    Pretty insane, even for UMC!

    26 days until the four-equal-payment-plan cutoff. That's 26 days to:

    -announce some bands
    -a day or two break
    -send out emails to gold survivors
    -at least a day break to ensure all emails sent and received
    -book gold survivors
    -at least 5 days break to deal with the mass influx of booking requests
    -email to silver survivors
    -at least a day break to ensure all emails sent and received
    -book silver survivors
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:38 am

    Image
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by FinnPete » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:38 am

    What I've noticed is that RC excursion prices go up when sailing date closes. Might be because of demand, not so stupid idea. Still now cheaper than Labadee last time. 20% increase for metalheads isn't so nice anyway.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:29 am

    And thus Amalu fell, with AstridDragon soon to join him.
    Disappointment is Andy’s whim.
    How many left to smell death’s scent?
    Well, only ten percent.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:02 pm

    Uh oh, AstridDragon's next!

    RIP

    :death:
    March 2nd jaimie38 - all 60 bands
    March 28th Castroh
    March 31st cowboy71
    April 12th jodionline
    April 15th Slayergeek
    April 28th Jotunheimr
    April 30th downvod
    May 1st Marmotte
    May 4th Ethrivas
    May 5th Speedy
    May 10th Jeyrow
    May 15th JamieS
    May 15th metalforever
    June 6th Malaka, aleyeahed
    June 9th Azazel101
    June 14th cegr80
    June 25th nekrobarr
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    July 16th Sgt. B
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    July 24th Godflesh
    July 26th bodomdragon
    August 2nd twoandfortysix
    August 5th mbob
    August 7th cowboy71 rebirth
    August 11th CaughtInAWeb
    August 31st Amalu

    :death:

    Still Among The Living:

    September 1st AstridDragon
    September 8th Yippee38
    September 9th acidbasement (Demons & Wizards)
    September 10th Tiki108
    September 23rd ShoreSlayer
    December 25th drrock
    2017.2018.2019.2020.2023.2024.GOLD.Survivor|2025 Wishlist:1349-1914-Aephanemer-Akercoke-Alcest-Alkaloid-AnaalNathrakh-AnAbstractIllusion-Atvm-Avatar-Avslut-Be'lakor-Belzebubs-ChapelOfDisease-Chthonic-Darkthrone-DiabloSwingOrchestra-Dimmu Borgir-Dodheimsgard-Draconian-EternalTearsOfSorrow-FreakKitchen-Hamferd-IATT-LochVostok-Marduk-NocnyKochanek-Satyricon-Schammasch-Scour-Shining(Nor)-Sigh-SulphurAeon-Turisas-Ulver-Virvum-Watain-WhiteWard
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:55 am

    Today is the 5th day since the last official post on Facebook, and they never went beyond 3 days without a post recently.
    It means that... they’re taking Labor Day off. Or does it?
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cowboy71 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:57 am

    Godflesh wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:55 am Today is the 5th day since the last official post on Facebook, and they never went beyond 3 days without a post recently.
    It means that... they’re taking Labor Day off. Or does it?
    I noticed that too. Hoping that it means they are getting ready for the hell they are about to unleash when they send out booking codes!
    Upcoming Gigs:
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:09 am

    cowboy71 wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:57 am
    Godflesh wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:55 am Today is the 5th day since the last official post on Facebook, and they never went beyond 3 days without a post recently.
    It means that... they’re taking Labor Day off. Or does it?
    I noticed that too. Hoping that it means they are getting ready for the hell they are about to unleash when they send out booking codes!
    Or maybe the intern whose only job is to tell us the thousand ways the pool deck is the best place on earth took the holiday off. That’s the level of professionalism I expect from UMC, and I still get disappointed every year.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by metalforever » Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:43 am

    maybe 70000 tons is being impacted by the approaching hurricane , they do have a office in the Bahamas !

    hopefully everyone stays safe during Dorian !!
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by PotatoPotahto » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:53 am

    Godflesh wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:09 am
    cowboy71 wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:57 am
    Godflesh wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:55 am Today is the 5th day since the last official post on Facebook, and they never went beyond 3 days without a post recently.
    It means that... they’re taking Labor Day off. Or does it?
    I noticed that too. Hoping that it means they are getting ready for the hell they are about to unleash when they send out booking codes!
    Or maybe the intern whose only job is to tell us the thousand ways the pool deck is the best place on earth took the holiday off. That’s the level of professionalism I expect from UMC, and I still get disappointed every year.
    My theory is that it doesn't mean literally anything because Andy likes to make us notice patterns and as soon as someone calls it out he just ruins our theories again. It's genuinely pretty upsetting at this point.
    Give me Behemoth and I'll be ecstatic
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by PotatoPotahto » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:58 am

    However, I did message the 70k Facebook page to request a band (yes even though I know that's not how it's done), and their response is interesting. The "near future" of course pissed me off but "some big surprises" I'm not sure I've ever heard them refer to the lineup with that. I've heard stoked, I've heard 'absolutely killer', I've heard 'our best yet' and 'our most diverse' but never heard "Some big surprises."

    Gives me a little internal hope for the "they're waiting because they have a massive name they're dropping this year" theory.

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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by meshuggah » Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:37 am

    PotatoPotahto wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:58 am However, I did message the 70k Facebook page to request a band (yes even though I know that's not how it's done), and their response is interesting. The "near future" of course pissed me off but "some big surprises" I'm not sure I've ever heard them refer to the lineup with that. I've heard stoked, I've heard 'absolutely killer', I've heard 'our best yet' and 'our most diverse' but never heard "Some big surprises."

    Gives me a little internal hope for the "they're waiting because they have a massive name they're dropping this year" theory.

    Image
    "Big surprises" can mean the first 2 announcements will be Dead Cross and Disturbed. SURPRISE!!!!!
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by cegr80 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:18 am

    Bye, AstridDragon!

    RIP

    :death:
    March 2nd jaimie38 - all 60 bands
    March 28th Castroh
    March 31st cowboy71
    April 12th jodionline
    April 15th Slayergeek
    April 28th Jotunheimr
    April 30th downvod
    May 1st Marmotte
    May 4th Ethrivas
    May 5th Speedy
    May 10th Jeyrow
    May 15th JamieS
    May 15th metalforever
    June 6th Malaka, aleyeahed
    June 9th Azazel101
    June 14th cegr80
    June 25th nekrobarr
    June 26th Gorgatron
    June 27th Zed3
    June 28th Shalini
    July 1st PotatoPotahto
    July 2nd Mr.Kito
    July 3rd meshuggah, Cardest
    July 5th toby
    July 9th Ti7aNiC, JoAnnamayhem
    July 10th Hoppy McGee
    July 16th Sgt. B
    July 20th Pellaz
    July 24th Godflesh
    July 26th bodomdragon
    August 2nd twoandfortysix
    August 5th mbob
    August 7th cowboy71 rebirth
    August 11th CaughtInAWeb
    August 31st Amalu
    September 1st AstridDragon

    :death:

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    September 9th acidbasement (Demons & Wizards)
    September 10th Tiki108
    September 23rd ShoreSlayer
    December 25th drrock
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Gratch » Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:43 am

    I don’t give two shits about Demons & Wizards...can we just get some goddamn bands?!?


    meshuggah wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:37 am
    "Big surprises" can mean the first 2 announcements will be Dead Cross and Disturbed. SURPRISE!!!!!
    While Dead Cross was - by far - the worst band I’ve seen in my 4 cruises, I’d absolutely LOVE to see them now that Mike Patton is in vocals (instead of the douchecanoe that they had the first time).
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:45 am

    cowboy71 wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:20 pm IT'S A NEW RECORD!

    Well not quite.

    It's a bit hard to do the exact math due to the different timezones, but according to the website we are into the 153 days to go zone, whereas by my records Accept were announced last year with 154 days to go - but I use my local time when I make those recordings....

    THUS, according to forum time, Andy posted the Accept announcement here on Friday 31st of August 2018 at 6.15am. Using the 5pm 31st January as the cutoff time, that would make the announcement 153 days 10 hours and 45 minutes from sailing.

    Currently we are 153 days and 23 hours and 40 minutes from sailing, so still about 13 hours before we break the record for shortest gap between announcements and sailing.

    And given that it would illogical even for UMC to just come out of nowhere with "BAM! BANDS!!", I think its safe to say this record is gonna be broken :P
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:50 am

    WTF? I can’t post here without approval anymore?
    “This message has been submitted successfully, but it will need to be approved by a moderator before it is publicly viewable. You will be notified when your post has been approved.”
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:53 am

    cowboy71 wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:20 pm IT'S A NEW RECORD!

    Well not quite.

    It's a bit hard to do the exact math due to the different timezones, but according to the website we are into the 153 days to go zone, whereas by my records Accept were announced last year with 154 days to go - but I use my local time when I make those recordings....

    THUS, according to forum time, Andy posted the Accept announcement here on Friday 31st of August 2018 at 6.15am. Using the 5pm 31st January as the cutoff time, that would make the announcement 153 days 10 hours and 45 minutes from sailing.

    Currently we are 153 days and 23 hours and 40 minutes from sailing, so still about 13 hours before we break the record for shortest gap between announcements and sailing.

    And given that it would illogical even for UMC to just come out of nowhere with "BAM! BANDS!!", I think its safe to say this record is gonna be broken :P
    Image
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:56 am

    This second attempt with a different image worked.
    I’m guessing something didn’t like that my first image came from a site with the words this, show, and sucks, in it.
    Totally involuntary, just a Google image search.
    Last edited by Godflesh on Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Godflesh » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:19 am

    Gratch wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:43 am I don’t give two shits about Demons & Wizards...can we just get some goddamn bands?!?
    I agree. I never heard about them until last year in this forum, and I’ll repeat my opinion that a band with only 2 albums to their name and 5-digit monthly listeners on Spotify cannot qualify as a first announcement, let alone a “showstopper”.
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    Re: Guess the first announcement date, 2020

    by Downvod » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:52 am

    Godflesh wrote: Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:19 am
    Gratch wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:43 am I don’t give two shits about Demons & Wizards...can we just get some goddamn bands?!?
    I agree. I never heard about them until last year in this forum, and I’ll repeat my opinion that a band with only 2 albums to their name and 5-digit monthly listeners on Spotify cannot qualify as a first announcement, let alone a “showstopper”.
    I get where you are coming from. However, I recently saw them live twice and have to disagree. They not only didn’t feel out of place as a Metaldays headliner, they were the best of the 5 headliners that week. There are a lot of iced earth and blind guardian fans out there, and the legacy of this project is strong with them. You really do leave the show feeling like you saw both bands playing together, not a side project.

    Also, they just recently had their albums added to Spotify and haven’t released new material in 14 years. Their fans have already listened to those albums countless times before they were added.
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